Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
