Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
