🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Profited $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the US operation. Market Movement in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January rose in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member last month and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436K from a initial bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Trading information shows that participants estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the market's assessment had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions right before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also earned significant sums from similar wagers. Legal Questions Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with traders able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs. This sector were examined under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting space. An official representative for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."